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Appreciating Uncertainty

"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
— John Allen Paulos

Uncertainty causes anxiety and fear. And these emotions may lead to displaced anger and poor judgment. What should we do when we face uncertain odds in the near future?

“You shouldn’t give circumstances the power to rouse anger, for they don’t care at all.”
— Euripides

What if we re-interpret the uncertainty? What if in uncertainty, lie opportunity? After all risk and luck are two sides of the same coin. Win or lose, uncertainty enables us to learn.

“The difference between predictions and outcomes is the key to understanding a strange property of learning: if you’re predicting perfectly, your brain doesn’t need to change further… Changes in the brain happen only when there’s a difference between what was expected and what actually happens." (emphasis mine) — David Eagleman

So when we predict the future and the predictions turn out to be wrong, we learn!

Fear due to uncertainty is also one of the driving forces behind our social structure. We band together to protect ourselves against the great unknown. This is hardly unique to people. In the animal kingdom, safety in numbers is a common strategy.

It’s also interesting that such “herding” changes in nature when the uncertain risk actually materializes:

“When a system ‘sits’ near a critical point, a small shock can cause a big shift. Sometimes, this means a shift into a new state – a group of fish shoaling (weakly aligned) detects a shark (the shock) and switches to a school formation (highly aligned), which is good for speedy swimming and confusing the predator.” — Jessica Flack & Melanie Mitchell

Perhaps in the 'criticality' of the herd behavior, we can find a way to encounter life's uncertainties. Robustness and resilience can be found in adaptability, as long as we remain responsive to change.

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