"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” — John Allen Paulos Uncertainty causes anxiety and fear . And these emotions may lead to displaced anger and poor judgment. What should we do when we face uncertain odds in the near future? “You shouldn’t give circumstances the power to rouse anger, for they don’t care at all.” — Euripides What if we re-interpret the uncertainty? What if in uncertainty, lie opportunity? After all risk and luck are two sides of the same coin. Win or lose, uncertainty enables us to learn. “The difference between predictions and outcomes is the key to understanding a strange property of learning: if you’re predicting perfectly, your brain doesn’t need to change further… Changes in the brain happen only when there’s a difference between what was expected and what actually happens." (emphasis mine) — David Eagleman So when we predict the future and the predictions turn out to be wrong, we

There are two modes of habit change: 1. Obsessive focus on a single goal or a set of goals. See this interesting article: https://lifemathmoney.com/get-obsessed-or-get-nowhere-moderation-is-for-cowards/ . This is the approach movies often depict as the secret to success. See "Julie and Julia" or "Jiro Dreams of Sushi". 2. Small improvements over your lifetime. Get 1% better every week, or perhaps even every day. See the book "Atomic Habits" by James Clear. Both approaches have their pros and cons. I find the latter more persuasive as it focuses on the process rather than explicit goals. Food for thought: “Objective judgement, now, at this very moment.  Unselfish action, now, at this very moment.  Willing acceptance — now, at this very moment — of all external events.  That’s all you need.” — Marcus Aurelius

1. Do a series of short exercises every day. Doesn't have to be long. Even 15–30 minutes of walks every day could be transformative. Do body weight exercises (squats, pushups, pullups), if it works for you. 2. 10 minutes of meditation every day (perhaps first thing in the morning). Use an app for guided meditation: Headspace, Calm, or Waking Up (I use the latter). 3. When writing, read aloud after first draft. Edit for flow. 4. Don't take criticism from someone you wouldn't take advice from. 5. Design your environment for success. Arrange your workplace the day before. 6. If you need a tool, buy the cheapest one or the easiest one to find. If you end up using it extensively, then buy the best one. Another one I like is: frugality about things you don't care about, lavishness on things dear to you (hat tip to Ramit Sethi ). 7. Decide a reset (for example a 5 minute walk or a breathing exercise). Use it every 30 min or every hour, while writing.

Success = talent + strategy (systems) + tactics (effort) + luck. And maybe a dash of apparent stupidity or stubbornness. Goals are important, as they provide clarity of ideas, strength of conviction, and direction of effort. We can use our goals to decide what not to do. In physics, we distinguish between speed and velocity. The former is undirected motion, the latter is directed. Before taking on a project we need to ask, we need to be clear why we want to do it, how to do it, and what specifics would be involved (the sequence is important). At the goal-setting stage, we need to broaden our scope. Perhaps start by asking if failure wasn't a factor, what would we like to do. Then the expansive thinking must be followed by directed effort. This is where habits become important. Start small (what if you make it very easy in the beginning?), keep records, use a commitment device. Perfectionism is a cop-out — regular effort beats waiting for inspiration. I do believe there is a role of

“Anything you experience is so much more vivid than if you’re just told about it.” — Daniel Kahneman “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” ― Otto von Bismarck How do we learn from mistakes of others and those we make ourselves? The first we can perhaps best do by reading widely and incisively. The second is a bit trickier. Perhaps there is role of mindfulness or similar practices to identify our harmful habits and stop making same mistakes over and over again. Systems first, goals later.

It's a simplification, but approximately on a neurological level, the messenger molecule dopamine is motivation. We respond to incentives (hence the field of economics). Thus if we want to change habits or build new ones, we need to design incentives properly. The same core group of neurons in our brain that enable learning, also encodes motivation. Changes in the level of the neurotransmitter dopamine affects our learning ability. We are reward-seeking creatures, and dopamine is the messenger of reward. When this system goes haywire, it can lead to addictive loops of behavior. Our goal, of course, is to hack the system to our advantage, to learn new things. We need positive feedback loops. For enabling new habits without resorting to sticks/carrots, we need to (a) have regular reminders, (b) ma ke new habits short and easy, and (c) journal our progress diligently. The last step will help our motivation, as we can do hard work as long as we know that we are on the right track. “Wh

“… the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong…” -- Ecclesiastes “It may be that the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong — but that’s the way to bet.” — Hugh E. Keough (sometimes attributed to Damon Runyon) Between 218 BC and 216 BC, Hannibal of Carthage defeated one of the greatest armies — that of the Roman Republic — in not one but three decisive battles. Battles of the Trebia, Lake Trasimene, and Cannae were so shrewdly won by Hannibal against such great odds, some of the tactics employed by him are studied to this day. But Rome didn't capitulate. Romans decided to bide their time until their advantages of resources ultimately turned the wind of the war. Hannibal was soundly defeated 15 years later not on Roman soil but at Carthaginian battlefield. Sometimes resilience is the difference between ruin and survival.

My goal for this year has been to write every day. Could be technical/scientific writing, or blog posts like the one you are reading now. I have been using the following steps to write faster and more persuasively. I urge you to give these a try and build your own habits. What you do regularly is who you are. Four steps: (i) Block off 2 hours each day (no distractions, no commitments, put it one the calendar), (ii) Get a piece of music on loop and put on your headphone, write for 25 min (no editing) only using a note-taking app (I use Evernote) for notes (no web browsing), (iii) Mild exercise or walking for 5 min, repeat (i–iii) 3 times, I use Toggl Desktop for this 25-5 pomodoro-type time-tracking. (iv) Edit your prose for grammar and flow, read aloud if you prefer. Reduce the variables, build a habit, win the day.

We learn by copying. A baby learns to talk by listening to their parents and trying to emulate their tone and the sounds they make. Even in our adulthood, we often judge our success by comparing ourselves to our peers. What we watch, what we read, what we listen to, all depend to some extent on our family members or our friends. It's no wonder that's hows bubbles form in markets. People buy certain stocks, gold, or houses, not only due to their value, but also due to simple herd behavior. And it works, some of the time. That's how asset values sometimes balloon out of proportions. But these inflations are very sensitive to outside shocks. Once the spell is broken, everyone joins a mad stampede to get out and the prices of the assets drop like a rock. This happened to the price of houses in 2008 (in the US) and the price to gold in 2011. The implication for us is to lead our lives according to predetermined principles, and minimize following our peers all the time. Otherwise