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Showing posts from June, 2020

Nerdy Post: Favorite Fonts

If you write (say in MS Word) or prepare presentation slides (in MS Powerpoint or Keynote), you need to choose a set of functional and pleasing fonts (technically we should refer to these families as typefaces, but most people refer to them as fonts anyway). Here are the ones that I like. All of these are available in macOS Catalina or in Google Fonts. Versatile Fonts: You can't really go wrong with these. You can use them in body copy, Headers, or as display types. Avenir (my favorite), Helvetica (the world's favorite), Proxima Nova. Fonts for Long Written Sections: Palatino, Charter, Garamond, Baskerville. Fonts for Heading/Display: Futura, Gill Sans, Open Sans, Lato, Founder's Grotesk, Didot, Bodoni. For presentation slides, it may be worth sticking to sans serif fonts, as they are easier to read from a distance. I prefer Avenir. For spreadsheets, we should stick to fonts that have clear representation of numbers. Goldman Sachs recently made their own typeface for numb

Change

How does a pot of water boil? How does a viral disease become a pandemic? How do some social media posts go viral? How do empires fall? How does anything change? Let’s introduce three concepts: (a) nucleation, (b) non-linearity, and (c) phase change. Nucleation is the gathering of right conditions for a system to change. You can keep a cup of water in the freezer and it may remain liquid even below 0°C ( a metastable system ). But take it out and throw in a spec of ice, and the whole cup of water freezes. That spec of ice is the nucleus around which water molecules can gather and crystallize. This is why — in the right conditions — small protests can lead to massive uprisings in societies. Non-linearity refers to the fact when things start to change, it can happen suddenly, even exponentially. This why the spread of pandemics always surprises decision-makers. Phase change is a systematic change for the long-term. Systems find new equilibria after a phase change — simply removing the in

Fear of the Unknown

A major cause of anxiety in our lives is the uncertainty we all face in the future. There are certain possibilities that we can predict and prepare for. Known risks, so to say. However, fear of uncertainty is most severe where the possible distribution of outcomes is unknown or hidden (HT: Barry Ritholtz, Michael Mauboussin). Unknown unknowns , so to say. Why does the latter produce so much anxiety in some people? First, imperfect information makes prediction hard. Second, left to their own devices, systems become more random with time (related to the concept of entropy). We seek to impose order onto a world prone to disorder. Finally, many systems are metastable. That is, they should not be stable under given conditions, but somehow manage to stay unchanged. Think a precariously made house of cards. Smallest changes in the environment can bring down metastable systems. The weakness of these constructs may not be evident to people that depend on it. Perhaps the financial crisis of 2008

Patterns, Periodicity, and Prediction

The Sanskrit word for one is eka. Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleev found a pattern when he was writing his textbook "Principles of Chemistry" — the properties of chemical elements seemed to repeat in the order of their atomic weight. He proposed a periodic table that arranged the elements according to their atomic weight and their chemical properties. It remains the best distillation of chemical properties of the elements — a tour de force. But Mendeleev had a problem. It was the second half of the nineteenth century, and many of the elements were not even discovered! How do you place something in the table that hasn't even been found? For example, there was a spot below the element Silicon in the table that didn't seem to fit a known element. Rather than trying to fill in the blank space, he put a placeholder: Ekasilicon. How do we act in a world of imperfect information? When we try to construct a mental model, pattern recognition may help us, but overfitting can lead us

Don't Play Stupid Games

The easiest person you can fool, as they say, is yourself.Here are some of the stupid games people play with debt: (a) consolidate debt, (c) open new "low interest" credit card to pay other credit cards, and (c) get long-term car loan. If you don't want to win stupid prizes, don't play these stupid games. Treat debt as an emergency and and go full-tilt to get rid of it. Either choose high interest loans first, or the smallest ones first, and systematically pay off all your debt. There are only two types of debt I'm comfortable with: (a) a house with a fixed 15 year mortgage with 40% downpayment, and (b) a low-limit credit card that you'll use only to pay monthly utilities (automate monthly utility billing online, and schedule monthly full payment on the credit card from your bank account). The latter is a dangerous tool, so treat it with respect. It's true that it will help you build your credit history, but carried over credit card debt is high interest a

Beware of Neat Stories

We are suckers for stories. Once in a while, a set of facts challenge our worldview. But our brain really tries to fit into the neat story that we tell ourselves. The world is messy, and sometimes stochasticity thwarts even the best laid plans. It's extremely hard to do — but I believe people who excel in developing new ideas actively seek out information that clashes with their mental models. If you can't perceive change, you can't adapt. Skepticism of neat stories is a great shield against herd behavior. And we all know herd behavior is responsible for the success of all scams.

Excellence and Competence

There is an intriguing dilemma in striving for excellence. Often we don't know what we are truly great at unless we try it, but even then it takes thousands of hours to be excellent in a field. There is thus a downside in focusing all your attention on a single topic or field. You can get trapped in a vocation you are good at but can never become great at. We need to develop a search algorithm for our career and intellectual life. Paths not taken, etc. etc. My solution is to choose a core area and focus of excellence. At the same time, we need to find two or three areas we can achieve competence. Trying to be good enough gives you an opportunity to find your groove. Hard work alone is not sufficient. Once you find the area where you achieve the most for your efforts, competence will lead to excellence, just by the virtue of compounding of knowledge over your lifetime. In a way this is not so different from diversifying your financial portfolio or appreciating the importance of sl

The Upside of Slack

Efficiency rules. We try to optimize our schedule, our happiness, the value we get for our spending, and so on. Efficiency means getting the best bang for your buck, not wasting a minute of your life, etc. etc. But there is a downside to a maximally efficient system. It's less resilient. It can crumble when things turn sour. There's an inherent trade-off between efficiency and resilience. You need buffers to protect against volatility and unforeseen risks . This is why I advocate allocating at least 30% of you portfolio in liquid assets, even at the cost of a greater return.

Common Pitfalls

Today I want to discuss three themes that impede our long-term well-being. Linear thinking is a common way of thinking about the world. However, in our world many processes compound over time and the returns are geometric . This induces people to underestimate the impact of long-term loans on liabilities such as a car. The reverse is also true — long-term investing leads to surprising build-up of wealth. Hedonic adaptation is how we get accustomed to lifestyle upgrades quickly and no longer derive any joy from those upgrades. Luxuries become necessities. The inflation in lifestyle costs don't lead to perception of joy, but reduce long-term well-being.  Loss aversion concerns our distaste for engaging in moderately risky endeavors, even when the odds are in our favor. Unlike the previous two pitfalls, this aspect does have a silver lining — it strives to protect us against catastrophic ruin. But we can never eliminate risk completely — the next best thing is to choose our battles

Core Principles of Financial Well-being

I have discussed how to prepare a minimal financial checklist , how to appreciate the risks and rewards of low-probability events, and a sound strategy of long-term investing . Now is the time to jot down the basic tenets of our financial lives. You should write your own, keeping sight of your goals and the amount of risk you are prepared to handle. Here are mine: Liquidity is paramount . Keep at least 30% of your money in liquid or semi-liquid assets. There is an inherent trade-off between efficiency and resilience. To stay the course for long-term investing, your portfolio must be able to withstand economically uncertain times. Chance events play an outsize role in our lives . Be prepared with insurances, an emergency fund to last 6–9 months, and an opportunity fund to use the unexpected opportunities along the way. No debt, no financial leverage . Properly used, leverage can bolster your portfolio, but there's a large chance of financial ruin if things turn sour. We must stay

Why Invest, How to Invest, What to Invest in

Why Should You Invest? Because it'll help you pursue your dreams and free you from financial worries. How Can you Invest? You need to save 25% of your income each month. Make a minimal budget and automate the transfer of 25% of your after-tax income to a separate savings account. Thus 25% of your income gets converted into 100% of your savings each month. First pay off your debts aggressively. Pause your lifestyle improvements at this stage. Then you should invest in a diversified portfolio. Diversified but not spread too thin. What Should you Invest in? (a) Direct 70% of the savings to a bluechip mutual fund or an index fund. Keep doing this for 25 years. Use a systematic investment plan if available. You want to make this process automated so that you are not tempted to reduce your savings when the market undergoes a prolonged drawdown. (b) Deposit 25% of savings into a safe investment (for example, treasury bonds or fixed bank deposits). (c) Use the rest (5%) to buy gold or gold

Two Sides of Luck

Unexpected opportunities and unforeseen tragedies are two sides of luck. We need to be prepared for both of them. To handle adversities, we need to save up for an emergency fund. This needs to be liquid — cash savings in a bank would be my choice. To take advantage of good luck, we need to build up an opportunity fund. This can be smaller in the earlier phase in life, and you can grow it as we get older. Liquidity is less important here, as long as it's not tied up in relatively illiquid assets such as real estate. Blue chip mutual funds can be a good choice here. But there's one more thing… Although often under-appreciated until too late, there's also a sharp edge of luck. There lie the catastrophic events in your life. None of us can avoid these. Sometimes the events can do the most damage to us are the ones we don't even perceive to be risky. For such a catastrophe which could lead to financial ruin, we need to play defence. There are two aspects to this: (a) we mus

A Beginner's Checklist

Perhaps one of the best underused life hacks is to use checklists to automate your financial decisions. This is helpful because, as they say, the easiest person you can fool is yourself. Thus checklists can act as bulwarks against your own dumb limbic brain. Here's a starter financial checklist I suggest you get started with: [] Savings accounts for all adults [] Term life insurance for family members [] Health insurance with highest deductible you can handle (more on this later) [] Nominees for each account [] Wills for everyone >30 years old [] Backup photocopies of important documents kept in a locker [] Property taxes cleared [] Emergency fund set up [] Minimal budget created with 20% savings margin [] Commitment to no debt except house mortgage (40% down, 15 years fixed rate) [] Diversified investment strategy [] Retirement strategy [] Gift fund [] Opportunity fund It may take you a year or more to complete this checklist. But it'll be worth it!

Taking Stock

Perhaps the first thing we can do for planning is taking stock of the present. I suggest listing your assets (use Excel if you need to) and debts. After this step we can discuss our goals and strategies. Your assets could include:  Cash,  Savings Account Amount,  Gold,  Bonds,  Mutual Funds, and  Real Estate.  Your debts would include all the loans and IOUs you have in your life. Let's begin!

A Billion Heartbeats

We all know that life is finite. We still need to plan for tomorrow, the day after, and so on. This blog is about planning for our future life, while keeping in mind that our time on this planet is limited. Scientists estimate that most mammals live approximately one billion heartbeats long. Turns out this is not a bad estimate for your remaining life here. With the timeframe in mind, we can plan for the inevitable surprises life throws at us, and try to live a prosperous and fulfilling life. In this blog, I plan to write on goal-setting, long-term strategies, and a few tactical inputs that can make our life better and help us help others who we care about. Welcome aboard!