A Billion Beats

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The Upside of Disaster

In the previous post , I talked about the tactics rational optimists use to deal with uncertainty: explore and exploit. There are situations where an utter disaster and the resulting uncertainty can change the history for the better. An amazing example is the story of human evolution from chimp-like apes. Here's a brief review of the story told by William von Hippel in “ The Social Leap .” These apes lived in the rainforests of eastern Africa, around 6 million years ago. They ruled the canopy. But then disaster struck. Eastern Africa was tearing away from the rest of the continent, due to plate tectonics. The climate changed. The rainforests disappeared. These apes had to adjust to living in the savannah, at the mercy of great predators. Humans reacted to this disaster by innovating and inventing. Human distinctions — from bipedalism, persistence hunting, to the use of language and tools and our social structure — ultimately are the results of that disaster. They learned to be grea

Gore-Tex and Serendipity

In the NYT, I read the obituary of Robert Gore , the inventor of Gore-Tex. Gore-Tex is a porous material made of teflon (made of carbon and fluorine atoms; it repels water very easily). If you have used a hiking equipment, from tents to shoes to jackets, chances are that you've used Gore-Tex. He discovered the material by happenstance: "Mr. Gore sought to make more efficient use of the material by stretching it, not unlike Silly Putty. But each time he heated and stretched a rod of PTFE in his lab, it broke in two. “Everything I seemed to do worked worse than what we were already doing,” he told the Science History Institute in a short film. “So I decided to give one of these rods a huge stretch, fast — a jerk. I gave it a huge jerk and it stretched 1,000 percent. I was stunned.”" It's a story that appeals to the chemist in me. It takes a tinkerer to test unlikely scenarios — it's not easy to acknowledge the limit of one's knowledge. For a chemical engineer,

Quotes from "Atomic Habits"

Here are the quotes from James Clear's "Atomic Habits" that I found insightful: “When it comes to habits, the key takeaway is this: dopamine is released not only when you experience pleasure, but also when you anticipate it.” “Once we fit in, we start looking for ways to stand out.” “When the effort required to act on your desires becomes effectively zero, you can find yourself slipping into whatever impulse arises at the moment.” “… the costs of your good habits are in the present. The costs of your bad habits are in the future.” “… avoiding a 33 percent loss is just as valuable as achieving a 50 percent gain” “When you can’t win by being better, you can win by being different. By combining your skills, you reduce the level of competition, which makes it easier to stand out. ”

Obsessive Dedication versus Marginal Gains — Part 2

I have argued before that a slow-and-steady approach to habit change is superior to obsessive dedication. I would like to add a caveat. A slow-and-steady approach is definitely preferable in matters that are not central to our identity. If I want to learn a new language or write blog-posts regularly, getting started on small doses is the right strategy. However, if your life and career depends on a single activity with time cut-offs, a touch of obsession may be what is needed. Could be your college grades or a revenue-sensitive business — a huge upfront investment of time and resources may be needed.

Pessimists and Optimists

I discussed before a role of dopamine for motivation and reward-seeking. I want to highlight a paper by Colin G. DeYoung that tries to establish "a unifying theory of the role of dopamine in personality." One of the interesting point that Dr. DeYoung highlights is that " what is uncertain or unpredicted is unique as a class of stimuli in being simultaneously threatening and promising ." The promising nature of uncertainty explains why people like gambling so much. So what do people do when faced with uncertainty, what do people do? They do what every organism is hardwired to do: “… the organism should have two competing innate responses to an unpredicted event— caution and exploration …” I think this is where pessimists (caution) distinguish themselves from optimists (exploration). Pessimists routinely lack the skill to be lucky . Here's DeYoung's overarching theory: “the general function of dopamine is to promote exploration , by facilitating engage

Against Perfection

Showing up matters. Often the hardest thing to do is to put in effort when we lack motivation. Everyone has off days. In those days, doing our best counts for a lot. If we want to do something everyday, say read, write, meditate, or exercise, doing less that we do usually can still be valuable. Keep the streak going. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.”— Theodore Roosevelt “The best is the enemy of the good.”— Voltaire “Quantity has a quality all its own.” — Thomas A. Callaghan Jr.

Drafting

“Almost all good writing begins with terrible first efforts. You need to start somewhere. Start by getting something -- anything -- down on paper.” -- Anne Lamott (Shitty First Drafts) “The way to do a piece of writing is three or four times over, never once. For me, the hardest part comes first, getting something—anything—out in front of me.” — John McPhee (Draft No. 4) To write a great article in one sitting is folly. What we should instead is to write a suboptimal draft and the next day return to edit it (more than one if necessary).

Appreciating Uncertainty

"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” — John Allen Paulos Uncertainty causes anxiety and fear . And these emotions may lead to displaced anger and poor judgment. What should we do when we face uncertain odds in the near future? “You shouldn’t give circumstances the power to rouse anger, for they don’t care at all.” — Euripides What if we re-interpret the uncertainty? What if in uncertainty, lie opportunity? After all risk and luck are two sides of the same coin. Win or lose, uncertainty enables us to learn. “The difference between predictions and outcomes is the key to understanding a strange property of learning: if you’re predicting perfectly, your brain doesn’t need to change further… Changes in the brain happen only when there’s a difference between what was expected and what actually happens." (emphasis mine) — David Eagleman So when we predict the future and the predictions turn out to be wrong, we

Obsessive Dedication versus Marginal Gains

There are two modes of habit change: 1. Obsessive focus on a single goal or a set of goals. See this interesting article: https://lifemathmoney.com/get-obsessed-or-get-nowhere-moderation-is-for-cowards/ . This is the approach movies often depict as the secret to success. See "Julie and Julia" or "Jiro Dreams of Sushi". 2. Small improvements over your lifetime. Get 1% better every week, or perhaps even every day. See the book "Atomic Habits" by James Clear. Both approaches have their pros and cons. I find the latter more persuasive as it focuses on the process rather than explicit goals. Food for thought: “Objective judgement, now, at this very moment. Unselfish action, now, at this very moment. Willing acceptance — now, at this very moment — of all external events. That’s all you need.” — Marcus Aurelius

Life Hacks for Writers

1. Do a series of short exercises every day. Doesn't have to be long. Even 15–30 minutes of walks every day could be transformative. Do body weight exercises (squats, pushups, pullups), if it works for you. 2. 10 minutes of meditation every day (perhaps first thing in the morning). Use an app for guided meditation: Headspace, Calm, or Waking Up (I use the latter). 3. When writing, read aloud after first draft. Edit for flow. 4. Don't take criticism from someone you wouldn't take advice from. 5. Design your environment for success. Arrange your workplace the day before. 6. If you need a tool, buy the cheapest one or the easiest one to find. If you end up using it extensively, then buy the best one. Another one I like is: frugality about things you don't care about, lavishness on things dear to you (hat tip to Ramit Sethi ). 7. Decide a reset (for example a 5 minute walk or a breathing exercise). Use it every 30 min or every hour, while writing.

A Model of Success

Success = talent + strategy (systems) + tactics (effort) + luck. And maybe a dash of apparent stupidity or stubbornness. Goals are important, as they provide clarity of ideas, strength of conviction, and direction of effort. We can use our goals to decide what not to do. In physics, we distinguish between speed and velocity. The former is undirected motion, the latter is directed. Before taking on a project we need to ask, we need to be clear why we want to do it, how to do it, and what specifics would be involved (the sequence is important). At the goal-setting stage, we need to broaden our scope. Perhaps start by asking if failure wasn't a factor, what would we like to do. Then the expansive thinking must be followed by directed effort. This is where habits become important. Start small (what if you make it very easy in the beginning?), keep records, use a commitment device. Perfectionism is a cop-out — regular effort beats waiting for inspiration. I do believe there is a role of

Learning from Mistakes

“Anything you experience is so much more vivid than if you’re just told about it.” — Daniel Kahneman “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” ― Otto von Bismarck How do we learn from mistakes of others and those we make ourselves? The first we can perhaps best do by reading widely and incisively. The second is a bit trickier. Perhaps there is role of mindfulness or similar practices to identify our harmful habits and stop making same mistakes over and over again. Systems first, goals later.

Dopamine and Motivation

It's a simplification, but approximately on a neurological level, the messenger molecule dopamine is motivation. We respond to incentives (hence the field of economics). Thus if we want to change habits or build new ones, we need to design incentives properly. The same core group of neurons in our brain that enable learning, also encodes motivation. Changes in the level of the neurotransmitter dopamine affects our learning ability. We are reward-seeking creatures, and dopamine is the messenger of reward. When this system goes haywire, it can lead to addictive loops of behavior. Our goal, of course, is to hack the system to our advantage, to learn new things. We need positive feedback loops. For enabling new habits without resorting to sticks/carrots, we need to (a) have regular reminders, (b) ma ke new habits short and easy, and (c) journal our progress diligently. The last step will help our motivation, as we can do hard work as long as we know that we are on the right track. “Wh

Losing Battles, Winning Wars

“… the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong…” -- Ecclesiastes “It may be that the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong — but that’s the way to bet.” — Hugh E. Keough (sometimes attributed to Damon Runyon) Between 218 BC and 216 BC, Hannibal of Carthage defeated one of the greatest armies — that of the Roman Republic — in not one but three decisive battles. Battles of the Trebia, Lake Trasimene, and Cannae were so shrewdly won by Hannibal against such great odds, some of the tactics employed by him are studied to this day. But Rome didn't capitulate. Romans decided to bide their time until their advantages of resources ultimately turned the wind of the war. Hannibal was soundly defeated 15 years later not on Roman soil but at Carthaginian battlefield. Sometimes resilience is the difference between ruin and survival.

Ongoing Tactical Experiments in Writing

My goal for this year has been to write every day. Could be technical/scientific writing, or blog posts like the one you are reading now. I have been using the following steps to write faster and more persuasively. I urge you to give these a try and build your own habits. What you do regularly is who you are. Four steps: (i) Block off 2 hours each day (no distractions, no commitments, put it one the calendar), (ii) Get a piece of music on loop and put on your headphone, write for 25 min (no editing) only using a note-taking app (I use Evernote) for notes (no web browsing), (iii) Mild exercise or walking for 5 min, repeat (i–iii) 3 times, I use Toggl Desktop for this 25-5 pomodoro-type time-tracking. (iv) Edit your prose for grammar and flow, read aloud if you prefer. Reduce the variables, build a habit, win the day.

Fragility of Self-fulfilling Prophecies

We learn by copying. A baby learns to talk by listening to their parents and trying to emulate their tone and the sounds they make. Even in our adulthood, we often judge our success by comparing ourselves to our peers. What we watch, what we read, what we listen to, all depend to some extent on our family members or our friends. It's no wonder that's hows bubbles form in markets. People buy certain stocks, gold, or houses, not only due to their value, but also due to simple herd behavior. And it works, some of the time. That's how asset values sometimes balloon out of proportions. But these inflations are very sensitive to outside shocks. Once the spell is broken, everyone joins a mad stampede to get out and the prices of the assets drop like a rock. This happened to the price of houses in 2008 (in the US) and the price to gold in 2011. The implication for us is to lead our lives according to predetermined principles, and minimize following our peers all the time. Otherwise

Irrational Fears

There is this common template for a nightmare. You are late to class. Everyone in your class is writing something. You freeze. You realize that there was a test scheduled for this period. And you forgot. Now you have to take a test completely unprepared. You sweat. You wake up. It actually feels good that at least the real world isn't as scary. Variation of this nightmare occurs to almost all of us, even when you are long past the age for taking a test in a class. Which other irrational fears are we carrying with us into the adulthood?

When Can You Stop Saving?

I like to point out, from time to time, the importance of saving and investing. What if we invert this question? 1. When is not a good time to save? 2. When is it enough? Inversion is a favorite mental hacks of the great investor Charlie Munger. The first one is easy. When you face an emergency, or have a great opportunity to spend your money on someone/something you love, you should do stop saving temporarily. The second one is trickier. This relevant for your retirement — this is the time you can stop saving permanently. Let's say your annual expenditure is X. This, of course, is different from your annual income. If you have accumulated 25X in equity funds, 1X in cash, 1X in debt/liquid funds, and 1X in gold, you can stop saving. You're set. The goal is to withdraw 4% from the equity fund each year (adjust for inflation as you go along). Generally speaking, this amount (1X) would be compensated by appreciation of the equity markets. You can't do this when the stocks drop

Mental Models

How do we see the world around us? It's easy to give in to the illusion that we see the world as it actually is. However, even rudimentary knowledge of neuroscience and behavioral psychology would tell you that it's a lie. For one thing, our sensory inputs are limited. There are animals that can see ultraviolet radiation. You can't. Apart from your literal sensory inputs, what you read, what you watch, who you interact with, influence your worldview. These subjective experiences make us unique, but also make us vulnerable to biases. There are two obvious ways we perceive the world in an inaccurate (but still somewhat useful) way. "The filter" is the part of the world even makes an impression on your brain. Just like you don't see your nose all the time, even though it's literally in front of you 24/7, we filter out enormous amount of information before us. This is a necessity. Our brains are amazing, but the world is too vast. Our sensory inputs are noisy.

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